TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
36% - 39%
- Kalshi
36% - 39% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 12, 4:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks the specific vote share John Cornyn will receive in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff election, broken into defined percentage ranges. The leading outcome—that Cornyn receives between 36% and 39% of the popular vote—currently stands at 97.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported by Texas election officials following the runoff. Watch for the official certification of results expected by May 26, 2027, which will definitively settle the market based on Cornyn's final vote share.
Kalshi
John Cornyn's vote percentage in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff is calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based exclusively on certified/official results, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used. The vote percentage is divided into ranges from below 33% to at least 57%.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations about Cornyn's final vote share, which may diverge from traditional polling averages due to differences in methodology and real-time information incorporation. Markets aggregate dispersed knowledge and financial incentives, whereas polls capture voter sentiment at a single point in time. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect polling to shift, whether turnout assumptions differ, or whether late-breaking campaign developments are already priced in by market participants.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in Cornyn's support, campaign announcements or endorsements, debate performances, turnout models, and late-breaking political developments in Texas. Primary results and candidate positioning could reshape the runoff dynamics. National political events, economic data, or legislative votes affecting Cornyn's approval may also influence trader expectations. Media coverage of the race and changes in voter enthusiasm or demographic engagement could trigger significant repricing of his vote-share odds.
