TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 1.3M
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Above 1.3M - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 12, 4:46 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether total voter participation in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will exceed 1.3 million ballots cast. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by official vote totals reported for all participants in the runoff election, as tracked by the relevant Texas election authorities. Watch for the actual runoff election results announcement, expected by June 2, 2027, which will provide the definitive vote count needed to settle this market.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the officially certified total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, measured across fourteen thresholds ranging from above 1.0 million to above 2.2 million votes. The vote count includes all officially certified ballots: provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, and electronic ballots are included only if reflected in official certification. In ranked-choice systems, the count reflects the official result identified by the certifying authority. Resolution uses certified results regardless of ongoing appeals; preliminary counts, exit polls, and projections do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the original date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or cancelled, all outcomes resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
The Texas Republican Senate primary runoff voter turnout market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution depends on the official final vote count reported by Texas election authorities for the 2026 Republican Senate primary runoff. The market will settle based on whether total participation meets or exceeds the 1,400,000 vote threshold. Traders should monitor official election results and state canvassing timelines to understand when final outcome determination occurs.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements and campaign spending intensity, which drive voter mobilization efforts. Voter registration deadlines and early voting participation data provide real-time turnout signals. National political developments affecting Republican enthusiasm or candidate viability can shift expected participation. Weather conditions and logistical factors on election day influence actual turnout. Media coverage of the runoff race, debate performance, and polling releases about candidate momentum all shape trader expectations about whether the 1,400,000 vote threshold will be reached.
