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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 9, 2026
kalshi

What will peak Texas electricity demand be?

Volume:
$43,199

Above 82,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 82,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,760
N/A
N/A
$3,540
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,906
N/A
N/A
$2,906
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,271
N/A
N/A
$2,215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,151
N/A
N/A
$2,151
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,908
N/A
N/A
$1,908
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,283
N/A
N/A
$1,283
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,201
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,201
N/A
N/A
$1,201
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
86%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,432
N/A
N/A
$10,478
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,065
N/A
N/A
$6,065
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,510
N/A
N/A
$1,510
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,509
N/A
N/A
$1,509
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific date. The outcome depends on whether the highest recorded hourly load exceeds various threshold values. The data comes from official ERCOT reports, ensuring an objective and reliable measurement of grid usage.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT on September 9, 2026, exceeds specified threshold values ranging from 78,000 MW to 89,000 MW. Resolution is based on the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. The Expiration Value for each market is the highest value found in the TOTAL column of this report. Each value reflects the ERCOT system load for a full hour, with instantaneous readings excluded. Values are compared as published, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications do not affect the result. Markets resolve to Yes if the recorded peak load surpasses their respective thresholds; otherwise, they resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. Analysts often rely on modeling and historical data, while this market reflects the collective judgment of traders responding to real-time information and anticipating potential disruptions. It’s worth noting that prediction markets have demonstrated a track record of outperforming traditional forecasting methods in various domains, but that doesn’t guarantee similar results for this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Essentially, traders are setting the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price converges towards what participants believe is the most likely scenario for peak electricity demand in Texas on September 9, 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 9, 2026. The reported value will be sourced from official ERCOT data and verified against credible public sources. The contract representing the correct outcome will pay out $1.00, while those representing incorrect outcomes will be worth $0.00. Traders should monitor official ERCOT reports as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected weather patterns, particularly extreme heat waves, are a primary driver of electricity demand in Texas. Changes in economic activity, such as increased industrial production, could also raise demand. Furthermore, any news regarding power plant outages, renewable energy generation (wind and solar), or changes in energy policy could move the market. Major geopolitical events impacting natural gas prices—a key fuel source for Texas power generation—could also have an effect. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on shifts in the Texas electricity demand market.