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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 4, 2026
kalshi

What will Texas ERCOT peak demand be?

Volume:
$75,320

Above 85,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 85,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
97%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,735
N/A
N/A
$9,576
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
89%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,724
N/A
N/A
$2,563
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,223
N/A
N/A
$5,091
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,937
N/A
N/A
$3,084
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,312
N/A
N/A
$2,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,254
N/A
N/A
$2,203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,812
N/A
N/A
$1,812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,306
N/A
N/A
$1,306
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,225
N/A
N/A
$1,225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,466
N/A
N/A
$17,466
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,205
N/A
N/A
$6,205
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,122
N/A
N/A
$2,122
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event tracks whether electricity demand in Texas will exceed specific thresholds on a particular day. The outcome depends on measured usage levels during peak hours, reflecting how energy consumption patterns can vary with weather and other factors.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 4, 2026, as documented in the first complete 'Actual System Load by Forecast Zone' CSV report published after that day. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 78,000 MW to 89,000 MW); if the recorded peak load exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes. All values are taken from full-hour measurements and compared as published without rounding. No later revisions, adjustments, or republications of data will alter the result. Instantaneous load readings from other sources are explicitly excluded from consideration.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in projected probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. It’s worth noting that analysts may provide point estimates, while this market provides a probability distribution across potential demand levels.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a lower probability and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price adjustments. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the likelihood of the peak electricity demand exceeding a certain threshold on September 4, 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 4, 2026. The official data from ERCOT will be used to determine whether the market resolves in favor of one outcome or another. The final price will reflect the actual peak demand experienced on that day.

Several factors could significantly influence trading in this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in the weeks leading up to September 4, 2026, will be closely watched, as extreme heat drives up electricity demand. Changes in the availability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, could also impact the market. Furthermore, any news regarding planned power plant outages or significant economic shifts in Texas could cause traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations in this market.