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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 3, 2026
kalshi

What will peak Texas electricity demand be?

Volume:
$82,631

Above 81,500 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 81,500 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 81,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,088
N/A
N/A
$5,562
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,264
N/A
N/A
$2,028
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,419
N/A
N/A
$18,272
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
0%
86%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,580
N/A
N/A
$10,308
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 82,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,466
N/A
N/A
$9,051
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 83,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,683
N/A
N/A
$5,083
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,363
N/A
N/A
$3,958
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,900
N/A
N/A
$2,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,399
N/A
N/A
$2,199
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,370
N/A
N/A
$1,370
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$2,100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 91,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 92,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 93,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. The outcome depends on whether the highest recorded hourly load exceeds various threshold values. The data comes directly from ERCOT's official reports for that day.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 3, 2026. The determining value comes from the first complete 'Actual System Load by Forecast Zone' CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day, specifically the highest value found in the TOTAL column. Each market has a different threshold (ranging from 82,000 MW to 93,000 MW) – if the reported peak load exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All values are evaluated as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications of the data will not affect the result. Only full-hour load values are considered; instantaneous readings are excluded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding peak electricity demand on September 3, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how the market has valued different demand levels over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $81,603, and the total volume traded to date, which is $82,631. This provides a clear picture of market activity and how traders are positioning themselves on this forecast.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than standard polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted outcomes, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders actively assessing the likelihood of various demand scenarios. It’s worth noting that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market allows for trading on a range of possibilities.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for contracts that pay out based on the final outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and offers based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. This creates a real-time forecast of peak electricity demand in Texas.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 3, 2026. The reported value will be verified against official data sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual peak electricity demand. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in the weeks leading up to September 3, 2026, will be crucial, as extreme heat drives up electricity demand. Changes in economic activity, particularly industrial output, could also shift the market. Unexpected outages at power plants, or significant additions of renewable energy capacity, would also be key signals. Finally, any announcements regarding energy policy or conservation efforts in Texas could influence trading activity in this market.