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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 24, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Sep 24, 2026?

Volume:
$33,717

Above 83,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 83,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 25, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,618
N/A
N/A
$2,719
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,785
N/A
N/A
$1,768
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,500 MW

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,458
N/A
N/A
$1,227
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,062
N/A
N/A
$1,032
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,040
N/A
N/A
$940
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$890
N/A
N/A
$637
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$869
N/A
N/A
$869
2d 7h 31m
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,677
N/A
N/A
$9,409
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,906
N/A
N/A
$2,456
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,537
N/A
N/A
$978
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 86,500 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,200
N/A
N/A
$1,200
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,100
N/A
N/A
$1,100
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 85,500 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$956
N/A
N/A
$956
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 84,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$402
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
$18
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 87,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 31m
No
kalshi

Above 88,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 7h 31m
No
Total markets: 19

Description

The event tracks whether the highest hourly electricity consumption on Texas' ERCOT grid exceeds specific thresholds on September 24, 2026. It reflects real-time energy demand fluctuations influenced by weather, economic activity, and other factors. Outcomes are determined by official ERCOT reports published after the event date.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 24, 2026. The Expiration Value for each market is the peak value found in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each market has a unique threshold (e.g., above 80,000 MW, above 80,500 MW, etc.), and if the reported peak load exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All values are evaluated as published without rounding, and subsequent revisions, settlements, or republications by ERCOT do not alter the outcome. Instantaneous load readings from other sources are excluded from consideration.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current odds of different peak demand levels on September 24, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how those odds have changed over time, giving insight into how traders are assessing the likelihood of various outcomes. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $33,417, and the total volume traded to date, which is $33,717. This allows you to gauge market activity and interest in this specific prediction.

Currently, it’s difficult to make a direct comparison between the odds reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. While analysts often provide projections for peak demand, these are typically point estimates or ranges, whereas this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of many possible outcomes. It will be interesting to observe how the market’s collective prediction evolves as we get closer to September 24, 2026, and whether it converges with or diverges from expert opinions on the expected electricity load.

This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual peak electricity demand on September 24, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official peak demand data released by ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas) will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual demand. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the reported peak demand, and 0 for all other contracts. This provides a clear and objective basis for determining the winning outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and September 24, 2026. Major weather events, such as heat waves or cold snaps, are primary drivers of electricity demand in Texas and would likely cause substantial shifts in the market. Changes in economic conditions, population growth, or energy policy could also influence demand forecasts. Furthermore, announcements regarding new power generation capacity or energy efficiency initiatives could affect the market's pricing. Any news related to ERCOT’s grid reliability or operational changes could also move this market.