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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 21, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Sep 21, 2026?

Volume:
$66,450

Above 84,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 84,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,507
N/A
N/A
$6,922
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,391
N/A
N/A
$3,369
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,327
N/A
N/A
$1,765
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,521
N/A
N/A
$1,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,366
N/A
N/A
$1,365
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,248
N/A
N/A
$1,242
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,104
N/A
N/A
$1,104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,094
N/A
N/A
$1,094
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$650
N/A
N/A
$428
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
$439
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
$428
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,917
N/A
N/A
$29,509
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,939
N/A
N/A
$4,039
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,512
N/A
N/A
$1,512
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event tracks whether electricity demand in Texas, managed by the ERCOT grid, will exceed specific thresholds on a particular day. The outcome depends on official hourly load data reported after the fact, reflecting real-world energy consumption patterns.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 21, 2026, as documented in the first complete 'Actual System Load by Forecast Zone' CSV report published for that operating day. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 78,000 MW to 88,000 MW), and resolves to Yes if the reported peak load exceeds its respective threshold. The Expiration Value for all markets is derived from the highest value in the TOTAL column of the referenced report, representing full-hour measurements only. Instantaneous load readings are excluded, and values are evaluated as published without rounding. Any subsequent revisions, settlements, adjustments, or republications of the data will not alter the Expiration Value, ensuring consistency based on the initial official report.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current odds of various peak demand levels on September 21, 2026, as predicted by traders. You’ll find a price history showing how these predictions have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $66,450, and the total volume traded to date, which is $66,450. This provides a real-time view of how the crowd is assessing the likelihood of different demand scenarios in Texas.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing probabilities for various outcomes. It’s common to see differences between the two, as markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Examining these discrepancies can be valuable for understanding the range of potential outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding this event.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different peak electricity demand levels, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market's collective probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract indicates the implied probability of that specific demand level occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast of Texas electricity demand on September 21, 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual peak electricity demand in Texas on September 21, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official peak demand figure, as reported by ERCOT, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, based on publicly available data. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final demand level relative to the contracts they hold.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 29, 2026. Weather forecasts for Texas in September 2026 will be a primary driver, particularly the predicted temperature and humidity levels. Changes in the state’s energy mix, such as increased renewable energy generation or disruptions to fossil fuel supply, could also impact demand. Furthermore, economic conditions and population growth in Texas can affect overall electricity consumption. Any major policy changes related to energy regulation or conservation efforts would also be closely watched by traders in this market.