TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 20, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Sep 20, 2026?

Volume:
$19,180

Above 83,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 83,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,474
N/A
N/A
$5,520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,409
N/A
N/A
$1,409
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$915
N/A
N/A
$915
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$788
N/A
N/A
$703
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
$258
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,141
N/A
N/A
$6,141
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,747
N/A
N/A
$1,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,296
N/A
N/A
$1,235
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether electricity demand in Texas, managed by the ERCOT grid, will exceed specific thresholds on September 20, 2026. The outcome depends on the highest recorded hourly electricity usage for that day, reflecting factors like weather, economic activity, and energy conservation efforts.

Kalshi

The event determines if the ERCOT grid's peak hourly electricity demand on September 20, 2026, surpasses various thresholds ranging from 78,000 MW to 88,000 MW. Resolution relies on the highest value reported in the TOTAL column of ERCOT's first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV file for that operating day. Only full-hour readings are considered; instantaneous load figures are excluded. Values are evaluated as published without rounding, and any subsequent revisions, adjustments, or republications do not alter the official result. Each threshold-defined market will resolve to 'Yes' if the recorded peak demand exceeds its specific level, otherwise 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on modeled projections, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to assess all available data, including weather patterns, economic indicators, and grid reliability factors. It's important to note that forecasts are subject to revision, while the market continuously updates.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Higher demand for a particular outcome will drive up its price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 20, 2026. The final price will reflect whether the peak demand exceeded 78,000 MW, as defined by the market contract. Traders will then be able to collect on winning contracts or fulfill losing positions based on the final outcome reported for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and the resolution date. Major weather events, such as heat waves or prolonged periods of high temperatures, are key drivers of electricity demand in Texas. Changes in economic activity, particularly industrial output, can also influence demand. Furthermore, any news regarding the reliability of the ERCOT grid, including planned outages or unexpected disruptions, could cause price fluctuations. Finally, long-range weather forecasts released closer to September 20, 2026, will likely play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.