TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

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2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 19, 2026
kalshi

What will peak electricity demand be?

Volume:
$2,319

Above 79,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 79,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 20, 2026

Closed: Sep 20, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
0%
88%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,183
N/A
N/A
$1,595
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks whether Texas's power grid will experience exceptionally high electricity demand on a specific future date. The outcome depends on measured peak usage against predefined thresholds, reflecting potential strain on energy infrastructure during extreme weather or high consumption periods.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 19, 2026, compared against ascending thresholds from 78,000 MW to 88,000 MW. The authoritative data source is the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day, using values from the TOTAL column. Only full-hour measurements are considered — instantaneous readings are excluded. No later revisions, settlements, adjustments, or republications affect the result. Each market resolves to Yes if the recorded peak exceeds its specific threshold; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical data sourcing and validation rules.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current prices for contracts predicting peak electricity demand on September 19, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how expectations have changed over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $2,319. The total volume traded to date on this market is $2,319. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the likely level of electricity demand in Texas during that period.

Currently, the collective prediction embedded in this market differs from many traditional analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. While some analysts predict moderate growth, the market price suggests a wider range of potential outcomes, reflecting uncertainty around factors like weather patterns and economic activity. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market represents a probability distribution of possible demand levels. Comparing the two can provide a more nuanced understanding of the potential range of outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, similar to a stock exchange. Traders submit bids (prices they are willing to buy at) and asks (prices they are willing to sell at), and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the market’s consensus expectation of the probability of peak electricity demand reaching different levels on September 19, 2026. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived likelihood of higher demand, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual peak electricity demand in Texas on September 19, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official peak demand data released by ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas) will be used to determine which contracts payout. The specific payout amounts will depend on how the actual peak demand compares to the levels defined in the contracts offered on Kalshi.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major weather events, such as heat waves or unusually cold snaps, are primary drivers of electricity demand in Texas. Changes in economic conditions, like a surge in industrial activity or a slowdown in growth, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, announcements regarding new energy infrastructure projects or changes in energy policy could influence trading activity. Any news impacting the supply of electricity generation, such as power plant outages, would also be closely watched by traders in this market.