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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 13, 2026
kalshi

What will peak electricity demand be on Sep 13, 2026?

Volume:
$76,619

Above 86,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 86,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,250
N/A
N/A
$8,948
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,977
N/A
N/A
$1,977
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,949
N/A
N/A
$1,852
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,790
N/A
N/A
$1,512
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,598
N/A
N/A
$1,588
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,532
N/A
N/A
$1,532
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,427
N/A
N/A
$1,426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
$1,195
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,067
N/A
N/A
$1,067
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,621
N/A
N/A
$36,267
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,371
N/A
N/A
$10,271
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,843
N/A
N/A
$3,843
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

These markets track whether the Texas electricity grid will experience exceptionally high demand on a specific future date. The outcome depends on measured peak usage levels against set thresholds, reflecting potential strain on energy infrastructure during extreme weather or high-consumption events.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 13, 2026, against ascending thresholds from 78,000 MW to 89,000 MW. The Expiration Value for each market is derived from the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the grid's total load for full hours only; instantaneous readings are excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications of the data will not alter the Expiration Value. Markets resolve to Yes if the recorded peak load exceeds their respective threshold, otherwise No.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders actively assessing the likelihood of various scenarios. It's worth noting that analyst forecasts can vary significantly, and this market provides a real-time, aggregated view of expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting the price based on their expectations. The price represents the probability of the event occurring – a higher price indicates a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and offers based on new information, leading to a dynamic pricing mechanism. This allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect changing sentiment regarding the peak electricity demand in Texas.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 13, 2026. If that load exceeds 89,000 MW, the market will settle in favor of the 'yes' outcome; otherwise, it will settle in favor of 'no'. The final outcome is determined by official data released by ERCOT and verified against credible public sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in the weeks leading up to September 13, 2026, will be critical, especially predictions for extreme heat waves. Changes in natural gas prices, a major fuel source for Texas power plants, could also impact expectations. Furthermore, any announcements regarding power plant outages or significant increases in renewable energy generation capacity could shift the market. Finally, broader economic conditions and overall energy demand trends will play a role in shaping the market's trajectory.