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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 12, 2026
kalshi

What will peak Texas electricity demand be?

Volume:
$38,087

Above 86,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 86,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 13, 2026

Closed: Sep 13, 12:55 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,802
N/A
N/A
$2,262
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,911
N/A
N/A
$1,811
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,652
N/A
N/A
$1,549
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,601
N/A
N/A
$1,601
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,419
N/A
N/A
$1,419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,211
N/A
N/A
$1,211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,174
N/A
N/A
$6,989
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 86,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,916
N/A
N/A
$5,213
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 87,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,469
N/A
N/A
$2,469
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,423
N/A
N/A
$1,420
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,505
N/A
N/A
$1,505
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. It measures whether the highest recorded hourly electricity consumption exceeds various threshold levels. The outcome depends on official ERCOT reports released after the event date.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 12, 2026. The Expiration Value for each market is the single highest value found in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the total system load for a full hour, and only these official published values are considered — instantaneous readings from other sources are excluded. All comparisons are made using the values exactly as published, with no rounding. Any later revisions, settlements, adjustments, or re-publications of the data after the initial report will not affect the Expiration Value, meaning the first complete report is final for resolution purposes. Markets resolve to Yes if the highest hourly load exceeds their specific threshold (e.g., above 78,000 MW, above 79,000 MW, etc.), and No otherwise.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets tend to aggregate diverse information and expert opinions more efficiently than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions. If analysts predict a high probability of extreme heat and record demand, we would expect to see the odds of exceeding 78,000 MW increase in this market. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst expectations can reveal valuable insights into the collective wisdom of traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe demand will be high, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 12, 2026. The reported value will be sourced from official ERCOT data and verified against credible public sources. The market will then determine whether that peak demand exceeded 78,000 MW.

Several factors could significantly influence trading activity in this market. Major weather events, such as prolonged heat waves or unexpected cold snaps in Texas, would likely cause substantial price movement. Changes in energy policy or infrastructure developments impacting electricity generation capacity could also shift expectations. Furthermore, economic indicators suggesting stronger or weaker industrial activity in Texas could affect projected demand. Any news related to ERCOT’s grid reliability or planned outages would be closely watched by traders in this market.