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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 10, 2026
🌟New
kalshi

What will peak Texas electricity demand be?

Sep 10, 2026, 12:55 AM EST - Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM EST
Total volume:
$3,351
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$3,351
0%

Above 78,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 78,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 18, 2026

Time left: 07d:19h:50m

Will the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 10, 2026 be above 78,000 MW?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 78,000 MW

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 79,000 MW

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
$1,001
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

Trade
95%
Yes 97¢No 26¢
23¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

Trade
88%
Yes 90¢No 38¢
28¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

Trade
82%
Yes 76¢No 55¢
31¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

Trade
37%
Yes 55¢No 72¢
27¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

Trade
21%
Yes 38¢No 87¢
25¢
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
$3
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

Trade
7%
Yes 25¢No 97¢
22¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,320
N/A
N/A
$1,320
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 80,000 MW

Trade
N/A
N/A
2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 81,000 MW

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 19h
active
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

Trade
N/A
N/A
14¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 19h
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific date. The outcome depends on whether the highest recorded hourly load exceeds various threshold values. The data comes directly from official ERCOT reports for that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for September 10, 2026. The determining value comes from the first complete 'Actual System Load by Forecast Zone' CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day, using the highest value found in the TOTAL column. Each market has a different threshold (ranging from 78,000 MW to 89,000 MW) – if the recorded peak load exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All values are taken as published without rounding, and later revisions, adjustments, or republications of the data will not change the result. Only full-hour readings are considered; instantaneous load figures from other sources are ignored.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current implied probability of the highest hourly system load on September 10, 2026 exceeding 78,000 MW. You can view the odds for this outcome, along with a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time. The 24-hour trading volume is also displayed, currently at $3,351. Total volume for this market is $3,351, indicating the overall interest in predicting peak electricity demand in Texas.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions from this market to those of traditional analysts. However, the implied probability on Kalshi—currently 99.0% for the outcome exceeding 78,000 MW—represents a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. This differs from a single analyst’s opinion, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. It’s worth noting whether expert forecasts align with the wisdom of the crowd reflected in this market as the event approaches.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they are willing to buy) and asks (the price they are willing to sell) for contracts representing the outcome. The current price reflects the market’s consensus expectation of the probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and increased selling pressure lowering it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information.

This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on September 10, 2026. The official data from ERCOT will be used to determine whether the peak demand exceeded 78,000 MW, and that determination will finalize the outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in September 2026 will be crucial, as extreme heat drives up electricity demand. Changes in the state’s energy mix—such as increased reliance on renewable sources or natural gas—could also influence the outcome. Major economic shifts affecting industrial activity in Texas, or unexpected outages at power plants, could also move the market. Finally, any news regarding grid infrastructure improvements or energy conservation measures could impact trader expectations.