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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 4, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Oct 4, 2026?

Volume:
$18,793

Above 60,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 60,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 60,000 MW

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,784
N/A
N/A
$2,247
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,000 MW

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,364
N/A
N/A
$2,364
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,500 MW

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,045
N/A
N/A
$1,830
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,000 MW

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,874
N/A
N/A
$1,873
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,500 MW

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,818
N/A
N/A
$1,816
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62,500 MW

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,345
N/A
N/A
$721
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,100
N/A
N/A
$1,100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 62,000 MW

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,087
N/A
N/A
$745
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60,500 MW

View
0%
87%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$789
N/A
N/A
$787
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 63,000 MW

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
$422
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 61,500 MW

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64,000 MW

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 63,500 MW

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 61,000 MW

View
0%
85%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$388
N/A
N/A
$380
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 66,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
$350
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65,500 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$321
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64,500 MW

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$319
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 66,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Description

The event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific date, reflecting how energy consumption patterns and infrastructure capacity interact under real-world conditions.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 4, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds, with each market corresponding to a different threshold value. The resolution relies on the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour, and instantaneous load readings are excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and any later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications do not affect the outcome. The Expiration Value for each market is the highest published load figure, and the market resolves to Yes if this value surpasses the respective threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for peak electricity demand on October 4, 2026. You can view the price history, which shows how the market has valued different demand levels over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $18,793, and the total volume traded to date, which is $18,793. This provides insight into how actively traders are participating in this particular market.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions from this market to those of traditional analysts. Broadly, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate results. However, it's important to remember that analyst forecasts and the probabilities reflected in this market represent different methodologies. Do analysts anticipate peak demand will exceed 62,500 MW on October 4, 2026? That’s the key question for comparing these viewpoints.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices are dynamic and change based on supply and demand, offering a real-time view of expectations for Texas electricity demand.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 4, 2026. The reported load will be sourced from official ERCOT data and verified against credible public sources. The market will then determine whether that peak demand exceeded the levels defined in the available contracts.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in late September and early October 2026 will be crucial, as extreme heat or cold can dramatically increase electricity demand. Changes in the state’s energy mix, such as increased renewable energy generation or the availability of natural gas, could also play a role. Furthermore, any major economic announcements or unexpected events impacting industrial activity in Texas could shift expectations and move this market. Regulatory changes related to energy policy are another potential catalyst.