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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 31, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Oct 31, 2026?

Volume:
$4,260

Above 59,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 59,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 59,000 MW

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$149
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,500 MW

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$249
N/A
N/A
$221
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$70
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 57,000 MW

View
100%
49%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$6
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 62,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,507
N/A
N/A
$2,498
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 63,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
$633
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 60,500 MW

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$340
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 61,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 54,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 54,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 55,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 55,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 56,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 56,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 57,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
Yes
kalshi

Above 60,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 61,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
No
kalshi

Above 62,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4d 22h 26m
No
Total markets: 19

Description

The event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. It examines whether consumption surpasses various thresholds, reflecting potential strain on energy infrastructure during high-usage periods. The outcome depends on officially reported hourly load data for that day.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 31, 2026, exceeds specified threshold values ranging from 54,000 MW to 63,000 MW. The resolution relies on the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour, and instantaneous load readings are excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the result. The market resolves to Yes if the recorded peak load surpasses the respective threshold for any given market; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted outcomes, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who have a financial stake in the accuracy of their predictions. It’s worth noting that expert opinions may not always align with the wisdom of the crowd as expressed through this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at prices they determine. The price of a contract represents the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices because they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the market price adjusts to reflect the latest consensus view on the peak electricity demand in Texas on October 31, 2026.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 31, 2026. The reported value will be sourced from official ERCOT data and verified against credible public sources. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts predicted correctly whether the peak demand exceeded 57,000 MW.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Changes in long-range weather forecasts for Texas in late October 2026 are a primary driver, as temperature significantly impacts electricity demand. Major economic shifts affecting industrial activity in Texas could also play a role. Additionally, announcements regarding new power generation capacity coming online or unexpected outages at existing power plants could move the market. Finally, any policy changes related to energy regulation or conservation efforts in Texas could also impact predictions for peak electricity demand.