TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 27, 2026
kalshi

What will ERCOT peak demand be on Oct 27, 2026?

Volume:
$56,481

Above 60,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 60,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 60,000 MW

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,178
N/A
N/A
$2,944
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,000 MW

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,347
N/A
N/A
$1,200
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 60,500 MW

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
$719
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 57,500 MW

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$754
N/A
N/A
$754
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 61,000 MW

View
100%
70%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$680
N/A
N/A
$284
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 56,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$450
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,500 MW

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$406
N/A
N/A
$406
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,500 MW

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$403
N/A
N/A
$363
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 58,000 MW

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$396
N/A
N/A
$396
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 56,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$208
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 57,000 MW

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$157
N/A
N/A
$157
22h 28m
Yes
kalshi

Above 62,000 MW

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,986
N/A
N/A
$16,791
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 61,500 MW

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,092
N/A
N/A
$7,003
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 65,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,332
N/A
N/A
$4,332
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 63,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,860
N/A
N/A
$2,860
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 62,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
$39
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 63,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 64,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22h 28m
No
kalshi

Above 64,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
22h 28m
No
Total markets: 19

Description

The event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. It examines whether consumption surpasses various predefined thresholds, reflecting potential strain on energy infrastructure during high-usage periods. The outcome depends on officially reported hourly load data for that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the highest hourly total system load reported by ERCOT for October 27, 2026, compared against specific threshold values ranging from 56,000 MW to 65,000 MW in 500 MW increments. The Expiration Value for each market is determined by the highest value found in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each value represents the ERCOT system load for a full hour, and only these official hourly totals are considered — instantaneous load readings from other sources are excluded. All comparisons are made using the published values without rounding, and any subsequent revisions, settlements, adjustments, or republications of the data after initial publication do not affect the Expiration Value. If the recorded peak load exceeds the respective threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Texas electricity demand market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for peak electricity demand on October 27, 2026. You’ll find a price history showing how the market has valued different demand levels over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $56,427, and the total volume traded to date, which is $56,427. This allows participants to gauge market interest and activity surrounding predictions for this event.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to external analyst forecasts. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in projected probabilities, as this market reflects the collective judgment of traders actively assessing the likelihood of various demand scenarios. It’s worth noting that analyst forecasts are often point estimates, while this market allows for a distribution of probabilities across a range of potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 27, 2026. The reported value will be sourced from official ERCOT data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual peak electricity demand.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Weather forecasts for Texas in late October 2026 will be crucial, as extreme temperatures (both hot and cold) drive electricity demand. Changes in the state's energy mix, such as increased renewable energy generation or the availability of natural gas, could also influence prices. Unexpected economic developments affecting industrial activity or population growth in Texas could shift demand expectations. Finally, any major grid infrastructure updates or regulatory changes related to energy management could move this market.