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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 21, 2026
kalshi

What will peak Texas electricity demand be?

Volume:
$26,828

Above 63,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 63,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 63,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,038
N/A
N/A
$2,659
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,157
N/A
N/A
$1,999
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 61,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,738
N/A
N/A
$1,738
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,000 MW

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$716
N/A
N/A
$716
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 59,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$656
N/A
N/A
$656
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 60,500 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 60,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 61,000 MW

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
$59
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 64,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,566
N/A
N/A
$7,566
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 64,500 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,034
N/A
N/A
$526
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 63,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,496
N/A
N/A
$2,459
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67,000 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,555
N/A
N/A
$1,555
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 66,500 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,000
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 68,000 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$800
N/A
N/A
$411
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65,000 MW

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$353
N/A
N/A
$353
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 67,500 MW

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$212
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65,500 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 66,000 MW

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 19

Description

This event tracks whether electricity demand in Texas will exceed certain thresholds on a specific date. It reflects how energy consumption patterns can vary based on weather, economic activity, and other factors. The outcome depends on official grid data released after the event date.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 21, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds, with multiple markets each corresponding to a different threshold value. The resolution relies on the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour, and instantaneous load readings are excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the result. The Expiration Value for each market is the highest published load figure, and the market resolves to Yes only if this value surpasses the respective threshold defined in the market's primary rule.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different view than many traditional analyst forecasts for Texas electricity demand. While some analysts predict a moderate increase in demand due to population growth and economic expansion, this market suggests a wider range of potential outcomes, with traders pricing in the possibility of both significantly higher and lower peak demand than anticipated. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts often rely on models with specific assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of a diverse group of participants.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different peak electricity demand levels, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting a higher probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual peak electricity demand for October 21, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official peak demand figure, as reported by ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the resulting payouts shortly after the official data is released. The resolution will be based on the highest recorded demand in megawatts.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major weather events, such as heat waves or unexpected cold snaps, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in economic conditions, particularly related to industrial activity and population growth in Texas, could also play a role. Furthermore, announcements regarding new energy infrastructure projects, regulatory changes affecting electricity generation, or even advancements in energy efficiency technologies could all move this market. Any news impacting the supply or demand balance for electricity in Texas is likely to be reflected in trading activity.