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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Aug 31, 2026
kalshi

What will be the peak Texas ERCOT electricity demand on Aug 31, 2026?

Volume:
$42,562

Above 83,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 83,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 1, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 12:55 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,035
N/A
N/A
$3,035
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,946
N/A
N/A
$2,129
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$2,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$2,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,294
N/A
N/A
$1,294
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,175
N/A
N/A
$1,175
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,075
N/A
N/A
$1,075
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,289
N/A
N/A
$8,472
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000 MW

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,304
N/A
N/A
$7,142
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 93,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,507
N/A
N/A
$5,506
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 92,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,114
N/A
N/A
$2,114
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 91,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,624
N/A
N/A
$1,624
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. The outcome depends on whether the highest recorded hourly load exceeds various threshold levels. The data comes directly from official ERCOT reports for that day.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on August 31, 2026, exceeds specified threshold values ranging from 82,000 MW to 93,000 MW. Resolution relies on the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day, using the highest value found in the TOTAL column. Each hourly value represents the full-hour ERCOT system load, with instantaneous readings excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlements, adjustments, or republications do not affect the result. The market resolves to Yes if the peak load for that day surpasses the respective threshold; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Texas ERCOT peak demand market dashboard shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $42,562. This tool tracks trader sentiment and liquidity for the Texas ERCOT peak demand market, helping users monitor how the market evolves as we approach the peak demand date in late 2026.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The settlement will reflect the official ERCOT reported peak electricity demand for the specified date, removing speculation once authoritative data is released.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 8, 2026. Extreme heat forecasts for Texas, updates to ERCOT’s generation capacity, and energy policy announcements are key drivers. Any surge in demand due to weather events or supply disruptions may push pricing toward higher outcomes, while milder projections could pull it lower.