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Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Aug 29, 2026
kalshi

What will be the peak Texas ERCOT electricity demand on Aug 29, 2026?

Volume:
$65,547

Above 82,000 MW

 - Kalshi

Above 82,000 MW - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 30, 2026

Closed: Aug 30, 12:54 AM EST

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Kalshi

View
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 82,000 MW

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,508
N/A
N/A
$7,484
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 87,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,074
N/A
N/A
$4,074
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,080
N/A
N/A
$3,080
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,328
N/A
N/A
$2,328
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 84,000 MW

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,308
N/A
N/A
$1,308
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 83,000 MW

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
$1,300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 89,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,822
N/A
N/A
$9,222
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,665
N/A
N/A
$9,665
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,709
N/A
N/A
$6,700
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 93,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,052
N/A
N/A
$5,046
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 92,000 MW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,950
N/A
N/A
$2,950
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 91,000 MW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,752
N/A
N/A
$1,752
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid for a specific day in 2026. It measures whether the highest recorded hourly electricity usage surpasses various threshold levels. The outcome depends on official ERCOT data released after the event date.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on August 29, 2026, exceeds specified threshold values ranging from 82,000 MW to 93,000 MW. Resolution is based on the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for that operating day. Each hourly value represents the ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour, and only published full-hour readings are considered — instantaneous load readings are excluded. Values are compared as published without rounding, and later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications of the data will not affect the Expiration Value. If the recorded peak load for the day meets or exceeds any of the defined thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Texas ERCOT peak demand market dashboard displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $65,547. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of peak electricity demand levels on August 29, 2026, offering a real-time view of market sentiment and activity for this specific event.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent the possible outcomes. The current implied probability reflects the collective judgment of participants about the likelihood of exceeding the specified demand threshold. Volume of $65,547 indicates the level of interest and liquidity in this market.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official grid data is verified against credible public sources. The settlement will reflect the actual peak hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on that specific date, removing any ambiguity about the final result.

Key signals include weather forecasts predicting extreme heat across Texas, updates on grid infrastructure projects, and shifts in energy demand due to economic changes or public policy announcements. Any unexpected events that affect consumer behavior or supply-side capacity could also cause rapid movements in this market as traders adjust their positions.