This group of markets asks whether Tesla's stock price will close higher or lower on September 14, 2026, compared to the prior trading day's close. The markets rely on closing prices reported by Pyth or, if unavailable, the primary exchange.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms rely on the same core logic of comparing the closing price on September 14, 2026, to the prior day's close, using Pyth data as the primary source.Primary resolution logic: Pyth (https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD)

Core resolution logic:

The market resolves based on the closing price of Tesla (TSLA) on September 14, 2026.
The closing price is compared to the closing price on the most recent prior trading day.
If the September 14th close is higher, the market resolves to 'Up'. If lower, it resolves to 'Down'.
If the prices are equal, the market resolves 50-50.
Split-adjusted prices are used in the event of a stock split.

Edge cases & clarifications:

No Trading: If Tesla does not trade on September 14, 2026, the market resolves 50-50.
Pyth Data Failure: If Pyth data is unavailable, the official closing price from the primary exchange will be used.

Timing: The market will resolve based on the closing price on September 14, 2026, as published by Pyth or the primary exchange shortly after the close of trading on that day.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on September 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for Tesla (TSLA) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or Tesla (TSLA) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting Tesla (TSLA), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which Tesla (TSLA) trades governs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently base their predictions on fundamental analysis and company reports, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information, including sentiment and real-time events. The current implied probability in this market may differ from the average analyst price target for Tesla, offering a valuable comparison point for investors.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Opinion, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery, with higher volume generally leading to more efficient pricing. Differences in the way each platform handles fees or allows for limit orders can also contribute to price discrepancies. While both platforms address the same question about the Tesla stock market, these factors can create temporary divergences in the odds.

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on September 14?

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