This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on June 12, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on June 12, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tesla stock direction market dashboard displays real-time odds for whether TSLA will close up or down on June 12. Traders can monitor the current price of each outcome, historical price movements, and trading activity to understand how market participants are positioning themselves. The dashboard reflects live consensus as buyers and sellers continuously adjust their bets, offering a transparent view of crowd expectations around Tesla's single-day directional move on that specific date.

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they measure different things. Analysts typically issue longer-term price targets and fundamental outlooks, while this market isolates a single day's directional outcome. Prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from many participants, creating incentives for accuracy that can differ from consensus analyst sentiment. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects near-term momentum to align with or contradict longer-term research views on Tesla's valuation and business prospects.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that balances supply and demand for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds you see reflect the collective willingness of participants to buy or sell shares at that price, with each contract worth $1 if its outcome occurs. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down and signaling changing expectations about Tesla's stock direction on the event date.

This market resolves around Jun 12, 2026, once the trading day closes and Tesla's stock direction can be verified. The outcome is determined by whether TSLA closes higher or lower than its opening price on that date, confirmed against credible public financial data. Winning positions are paid out automatically once the result is finalized, and all positions expire at that time regardless of the margin by which the stock moved.

Tesla's stock direction on June 12 could be influenced by earnings announcements, product launches, regulatory developments, or macroeconomic shifts affecting the broader market. Geopolitical events, interest rate expectations, and sector-wide automotive news may also sway intraday momentum. Real-time news flow, options expiration activity, and index rebalancing can create volatility. Traders in this market monitor these catalysts closely, adjusting their positions as new information surfaces and reassessing the probability of an up or down close.

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12?

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