TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

polymarket

limitless

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6?

Volume:

$3,054

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6?

- Polymarket

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$2,753

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

limitless

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down - Weekly

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

1.3¢

N/A

$301

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

These markets assess whether Tesla (TSLA) stock closes higher or lower on a specified date compared to the most recent prior trading day. Both platforms use Pyth as the official price feed and apply identical comparison logic, though they reference slightly different calendar dates (July 2 vs. July 6, 2026).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms resolve on different calendar dates (July 2 vs. July 6, 2026), resulting in distinct markets with potentially different settlement outcomes. Additionally, tie-resolution logic diverges: Limitless defaults to Down on equality, while Polymarket splits 50-50.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets. Confirm the exact settlement date and prior-day reference with each platform. Note that July 6, 2026 is a Sunday; Polymarket will likely reference the last trading day (Friday July 3 or Thursday July 2, depending on holiday calendar). Polymarket's 50-50 tie rule creates a third outcome; Limitless has only Up/Down.

Critical divergence points:

Limitless: Compares July 2, 2026 Close vs. June 25, 2026 Close. Resolves Up if July 2 > June 25; otherwise Down. No tie outcome. Uses Pyth TSLA/USD as sole resolution source. Falls back to primary exchange official close if Pyth data unavailable.
Polymarket: Compares July 6, 2026 Close vs. most recent prior trading day Close. Resolves Up if July 6 > prior; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth as primary source with fallback to primary exchange official close. Explicitly allows 50-50 outcome on price equality.

Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on July 6, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on July 6, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Tesla (Pyth TSLA/USD) on July 2, 2026 is strictly higher than the Close price for Tesla (Pyth TSLA/USD) on June 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Close price for Tesla (Pyth TSLA/USD) captured on June 25, 2026, was $374.74500. Resolution source: Pyth TSLA/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a weekly Friday market would ordinarily compare that Friday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that previous Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day. If Tesla (TSLA) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 2, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which TSLA is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting TSLA during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and Wall Street analyst price targets operate on different timescales and incentive structures. Analysts typically publish 12-month outlooks based on fundamental research, while this market focuses on a single-day move—a much shorter, more volatile window. Prediction markets reward accuracy with real money, creating sharper price discovery for near-term events. Analyst forecasts often lag market repricing after earnings or macro surprises, whereas traders here adjust odds in real time. For intraday directional bets, prediction market odds tend to embed more current sentiment than consensus analyst views.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Limitless may see heavier retail participation in weekly derivatives, while Polymarket draws institutional and sophisticated traders focused on spot directional bets. Order-book depth, settlement rules, and platform-specific incentives can cause temporary price gaps. Arbitrage traders typically narrow these spreads, but during low-liquidity windows or when new information breaks, divergence can persist for hours. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand which community is more confident in a given outcome.

Quarterly earnings announcements, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and sector-wide tech selloffs are primary catalysts. Elon Musk statements on X or during earnings calls often trigger sharp repricing. Broader market indices—the Nasdaq and S&P 500—typically correlate with TSLA moves, so macro data releases and geopolitical news ripple through. Supply-chain updates, regulatory filings, and competitor announcements can also shift sentiment. Traders monitor pre-market futures and options flow for early signals; unusual options activity often precedes directional moves in this market.