TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Marsha Blackburn, ≥9%
- Kalshi
Marsha Blackburn, ≥9% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 9, 7:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the potential electoral performance of Marsha Blackburn in a future primary race, focusing specifically on the difference between her vote share and her nearest competitor. The outcome depends entirely on the size of her lead, should she win, or the gap to the top finisher, should she lose. Each outcome represents a different threshold of this margin, allowing participants to assess varying degrees of dominance or competitiveness in the race.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether Marsha Blackburn's margin of victory—or deficit—in the 2026 Tennessee Republican gubernatorial primary falls within a specified percentage range. The margin is calculated as Blackburn's vote share minus that of the runner-up if she wins, or the vote share of the eventual winner if she loses. If Blackburn ties for first place, the margin is zero. Each market defines a unique range, from ≥3% to ≥30%, using inclusive lower bounds and exclusive upper bounds without rounding. Votes for Blackburn across multiple parties or listings are aggregated. A margin of exactly the lower bound resolves in the corresponding market, while a margin equal to or exceeding the upper bound resolves in the next higher market or 'No' if beyond all defined ranges.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Aug 6, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin of victory will be calculated from official election results, determining whether it meets the threshold defined in this market.
