TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in August
kalshi

Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend in August

Volume:
$28,480

Above 108

 - Kalshi

Above 108 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:42 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 108

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,140
N/A
N/A
$607
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 104

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$935
N/A
N/A
$561
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
$415
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
$694
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 106

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$791
N/A
N/A
$117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$562
N/A
N/A
$456
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
$63
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 118

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,827
N/A
N/A
$1,579
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 120

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,667
N/A
N/A
$1,654
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 114

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,205
N/A
N/A
$1,518
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 122

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,368
N/A
N/A
$1,410
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 116

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,454
N/A
N/A
$1,120
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 112

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,069
N/A
N/A
$456
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,393
N/A
N/A
$345
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

The event tracks the performance of a specific credit card against a series of incremental spending thresholds for a defined month. Each threshold represents a distinct level of spending, with the outcome determined by whether the reported spending exceeds that level. The data source uses mobile location data to measure year-over-year changes in spending patterns.

Kalshi

All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026. Each market has a unique threshold value (ranging from 96 to 122), and resolves to 'Yes' if the reported index for August 2026 exceeds its respective threshold. The determining value is the first report published by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after market settlement will not affect the outcome. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. store visits, with 100 representing equal spending to the prior year, values above 100 indicating growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays, and updated daily.

Frequently asked questions

While financial analysts may publish estimates for Temu's credit card usage patterns, this market offers a real-time aggregate of trader sentiment. On Kalshi, the current odds reflect what participants expect for August outcomes, often diverging from traditional forecasts due to insider speculation, macroeconomic signals, or recent platform-specific news. Comparing these two can highlight market optimism or skepticism not yet reflected in analyst reports.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. August's actual credit card spend figures will be compared against the defined thresholds, and the market will settle based on which range the verified data falls into. No further trading will occur after resolution, locking in all positions at that point.

Key signals include preliminary retail sales reports, consumer spending surveys, and any major economic announcements affecting discretionary purchases. Earnings calls from competitors or changes in credit card processing volumes could also shift expectations. On Kalshi, large trades—especially near resistance levels—may cause price swings, while news headlines directly referencing Temu's financial performance often drive short-term volatility in this market.