TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 15, 7:01 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between September 8, 12:00 PM ET and September 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between September 8, 12:00 PM ET and September 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as polls focusing on the posting habits of politicians are rare. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information than polls, including news events, social media sentiment, and expert opinions. This can lead to differences between the implied probabilities in this market and any available polling averages regarding Senator Cruz’s public activity. It's important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what people currently think is likely.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of posts made by Senator Ted Cruz on his official social media accounts between September 8th and September 15th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of posts will be tallied from publicly accessible sources, and the outcome corresponding to the correct range of posts will be determined. The market will then settle based on this verified count, reflecting the actual activity during that period.
Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. Major news events related to Senator Cruz, such as significant legislative actions or public controversies, could shift expectations about his social media engagement. Changes in his communication strategy or the emergence of new social media platforms could also play a role. Unexpected political developments or shifts in public opinion regarding Senator Cruz are other potential catalysts that could impact this market before it resolves on Sep 15, 2026.