TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between June 2, 12:00 PM ET and June 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations rather than traditional polling data. Unlike polls, which measure stated preferences or hypothetical scenarios, prediction markets incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. For this event, traders are pricing in their expectations of Cruz's actual posting behavior during June 2–9, 2026, based on historical patterns, political calendar events, and anticipated news cycles. Comparing market odds to analyst forecasts or historical baseline data can reveal whether traders expect above-average or below-average social media activity from Cruz during that week.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual number of posts Ted Cruz publishes across his social media accounts during the June 2–9, 2026 window. The outcome is binary: if Cruz posts 0–19 times, the lower-volume outcome wins; if he posts 20 or more times, the higher-volume outcome wins. Resolution relies on verifiable post counts from public social media records, ensuring an objective and auditable determination of the final result.
Several catalysts could shift odds before resolution. Major political events—such as Senate votes, campaign announcements, or high-profile news cycles—typically increase Cruz's posting frequency. Conversely, legislative recesses or personal events may reduce activity. Changes in his social media strategy or platform usage patterns could also influence outcomes. Real-time tracking of his posting behavior in the weeks leading up to June 2–9 will provide traders with updated baseline data. Any significant shifts in his public visibility or media engagement during the event window itself will drive final price movements as resolution approaches.