TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 1:45 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between August 21, 12:00 PM ET and August 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Unlike traditional polling averages, which rely on voter self-reporting, this market uses real-money bets to reflect trader expectations about Ted Cruz's social media activity. While polls may gauge public opinion on political alignment, this market focuses narrowly on quantifiable behavior — the exact number of posts he makes over the specified week. The current odds reveal what participants are willing to pay now to bet on each possible outcome range.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the exact number of posts Ted Cruz publishes from August 21 to August 28, 2026 is verifiable from credible public sources. The final count will settle this market into one of the defined ranges, determining which traders hold the correct prediction.
News about Ted Cruz’s travel schedule, major announcements, or platform algorithm changes could shift expectations for his posting frequency and move this market. Additionally, any surge in political discussion surrounding Cruz during the week — debates, controversies, or media appearances — may increase trader confidence in higher post-count outcomes, while quieter periods could push odds toward lower ranges.