TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 1, 2:07 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from published analyst valuations because they incorporate real-time information and market sentiment. While traditional equity research teams may issue target valuations based on fundamentals and comparable companies, this market prices in the collective judgment of active traders who have financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the leading outcome odds here to pre-IPO analyst consensus can reveal whether the market is pricing in more optimism or caution than Wall Street consensus.
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing different valuation ranges, with each share's price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome currently reflects strong trader conviction around a specific valuation band. Prices adjust continuously as new information emerges and traders update their positions, creating a dynamic market that responds to company news, sector trends, and broader IPO market conditions.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, once Tarsier Pharma's IPO closing market capitalization is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the company's total market value at the end of its first trading day, calculated by multiplying the closing stock price by fully diluted shares outstanding. Resolution occurs after official market data is published and confirmed, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders.
Key catalysts include clinical trial results, regulatory announcements, competitive developments in Tarsier Pharma's therapeutic area, and broader biotech sector momentum. Shifts in interest rates and investor appetite for early-stage pharma also influence valuation expectations. Media coverage, analyst initiations, and comparable company IPO performance can rapidly reprrice this market. Closer to the IPO date, roadshow feedback, final pricing announcements, and market conditions on launch day will drive final positioning.