TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Target Credit Card Spend in August
kalshi

Target Credit Card Spend in August

Volume:
$3,487

Above 97

 - Kalshi

Above 97 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 12:47 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 97

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,910
N/A
N/A
$274
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 101

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 103

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 95

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks Target's credit card spending performance for August 2026, comparing it to the same month in the previous year. The outcome depends on whether the reported spending index exceeds specific thresholds, reflecting growth relative to the prior year. The data source is Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. transaction panel.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Target Credit Card Spend index for August 2026, comparing it to August of the prior year. The index measures year-over-year change, with 100 representing equal spending to the same month last year; values above 100 indicate growth and below 100 indicate decline. Each market has a specific threshold (95, 97, 99, 101, or 103) that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' outcome. Determination is made using the first value reported by Carbon Arc for August 2026, and any corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index is calculated from Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction panel, updated daily as new data arrives. Kalshi is not affiliated with or connected to Target or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean toward specific expectations based on historical trends and economic indicators, traders are pricing in a range of possibilities that incorporates recent sales data, consumer sentiment surveys, and inventory reports, often resulting in a more nuanced or volatile view.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will be based on official sales figures released by Target, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution for all participants.

Key signals that could shift this market include monthly retail sales reports, consumer confidence indexes, major economic announcements, and any unexpected disruptions such as supply chain issues or promotional events. Traders will also watch for early sales data leaks or analyst updates that could signal changes in spending patterns before the official August results are published.