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$1,438,389,636

404,028

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5

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Up or Down - Daily
limitless

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Up or Down - Daily

Volume:
$56,460

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Up or Down - Daily

 - Limitless

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Up or Down - Daily - Limitless

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Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 4:00 PM EST

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Up or Down - Daily

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2.7¢
N/A
$56,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) on June 15, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) captured on June 12, 2026, was $423.67087. Resolution source: Pyth TSM/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day. If Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 15, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which TSM is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting TSM during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) on June 15, 2026, is strictly higher than the Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The Close price for Taiwan Semiconductor (Pyth TSM/USD) captured on June 12, 2026, was $423.67087. Resolution source: Pyth TSM/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's Close price with the previous Friday's Close price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's Close price, or the next most recent trading day. If Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) does not trade at all during the regular session on June 15, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the Close price refers to the "Close" value of the 1-minute Pyth candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective Close price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which TSM is listed will be used to determine the Close price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting TSM during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

The TSM daily price movement market on Limitless tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether Taiwan Semiconductor's stock will close up or down on any given trading day. The dashboard displays the current probability assigned to each outcome, along with 24-hour volume metrics that reflect trader activity and liquidity. This market aggregates the collective forecast of participants betting on intraday directional moves in TSM, making it a live barometer of short-term sentiment around one of the world's most critical semiconductor manufacturers.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money incentives and live market sentiment rather than periodic research reports. While equity analysts typically issue longer-term ratings and price targets, this market captures day-to-day directional bets from traders responding to earnings surprises, geopolitical developments, and intraday momentum. Comparing the odds here to consensus analyst views can reveal whether the market is pricing in near-term volatility that formal research has not yet incorporated.

On Limitless, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds shift continuously based on the volume and direction of incoming trades, with the platform's algorithm adjusting prices to balance supply and demand. Participants can enter or exit positions at any time before market close, and the final probability reflects the aggregate confidence of all active traders at that moment.

This market resolves around Jun 15, 2026, after the trading day concludes and TSM's closing price is finalized. The outcome is determined by comparing the closing price to the previous day's close, with verification against credible public financial sources. Once the price movement is confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on which outcome they backed.

Intraday catalysts that could shift this market include earnings announcements, semiconductor industry news, geopolitical developments affecting Taiwan, shifts in U.S.–China trade policy, and broader tech sector momentum. Macroeconomic data releases, central bank communications, and competitor announcements can also trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, technical factors such as options expiration, index rebalancing, and algorithmic trading activity often influence daily stock moves, making this market sensitive to both fundamental surprises and short-term market microstructure.