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Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?

Volume:
$222,578

16-18%

 - Polymarket

16-18% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 3:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

16-18%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$60,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,078
N/A
N/A
$1,594
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 17%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,256
N/A
N/A
$762
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,793
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<16%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,795
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,687
N/A
N/A
$6,926
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 23%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,550
N/A
N/A
$1,819
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,413
N/A
N/A
$2,014
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 28%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,235
N/A
N/A
$1,725
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 21%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,730
N/A
N/A
$737
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 19%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,705
N/A
N/A
$1,973
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 22%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,848
N/A
N/A
$726
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 18%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,423
N/A
N/A
$756
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the Sweden Democrats (SD) will achieve in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. The markets resolve based on the official percentage of valid votes received by the SD, as reported by the Swedish Election Authority.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket offer different sets of thresholds for the Sweden Democrats' vote share, creating SKU risk and potential pricing discrepancies.Hero tip: Consider the granularity offered by Kalshi for more precise trading. Be mindful of bracket boundaries on Polymarket, as results falling near these thresholds could lead to unexpected outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets resolve based on specific ranges: <16%, 16-18%, 18-20%, >=20%. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve based on whether the vote share is greater than or equal to thresholds ranging from 15% to 28%, inclusive. "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Sweden Democrats in the 2026 Swedish general election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the certified share of valid votes received by the Sweden Democrats in the 2026 election to Sweden's Riksdag, as officially determined by Valmyndigheten. The vote percentage is calculated by dividing the total valid votes cast for the Sweden Democrats by the total number of valid votes cast nationwide, then multiplied by 100. Only votes in the national parliamentary election count—regional or municipal votes are excluded, as are invalid, spoiled, blank, or rejected ballots. Markets vary by threshold: each resolves to 'Yes' if the certified percentage equals or exceeds its specific threshold (ranging from 15% to 28%), and 'No' otherwise. All markets use the same underlying vote percentage figure, with resolution occurring only after Valmyndigheten publishes the final certified results, not preliminary counts.