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Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?

Volume:
$188,758

27-30%

 - Polymarket

27-30% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 3:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27-30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36,328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 27%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,867
N/A
N/A
$4,016
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<27%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-33%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$28,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,662
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 35%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,943
N/A
N/A
$2,379
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 30%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,067
N/A
N/A
$3,188
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 29%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,549
N/A
N/A
$2,262
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 31%

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$857
N/A
N/A
$635
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 32%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$699
N/A
N/A
$599
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 33%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$550
N/A
N/A
$540
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This group forecasts the vote share the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) will receive in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. The markets resolve based on the official percentage of valid votes attributed to the party by the Swedish Election Authority.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers markets based on specific percentage ranges, while Polymarket offers both 'less than' and range-based markets, leading to differing settlement conditions.Hero tip: Be mindful of the differing range definitions. Kalshi's ranges are inclusive, and Polymarket's tie-breaking rule could impact outcomes near range boundaries. Consider the implications when comparing probabilities across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the percentage of valid votes received by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), with a tie-breaking rule favoring the higher range bracket. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the certified percentage falls within a specified range (e.g., 27% to 100%).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of valid votes received by the Swedish Social Democratic Party in the 2026 Riksdag election, as determined by Valmyndigheten's final official results. Each market corresponds to a specific vote share threshold (ranging from 27% to 35%), with "Yes" resolving if the party's share meets or exceeds that threshold. Only votes cast in the national parliamentary election count — regional or municipal votes are excluded. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots do not factor into the calculation denominator. The percentage is computed as the party's total votes divided by total valid votes, multiplied by 100 and rounded appropriately. Preliminary or unofficial counts are irrelevant; only the authoritative certified result determines resolution.