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Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?

Volume:
$111,305

At least 3%

 - Kalshi

At least 3% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 11:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,455
N/A
N/A
$3,392
Settled
Yes
polymarket

5-7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 6%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,585
N/A
N/A
$2,033
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,476
N/A
N/A
$2,668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,217
N/A
N/A
$2,210
Settled
Yes
polymarket

7-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,452
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 11%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,194
N/A
N/A
$2,942
Settled
No
polymarket

<5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 9%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,676
N/A
N/A
$2,163
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,735
N/A
N/A
$915
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 8%

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the Green Party (Miljöpartiet de gröna) will receive in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. The markets aim to predict whether the party's vote share will fall within specific percentage ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket markets define ranges (e.g., 5%-7%), while Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if the vote share is *at or above* a specified threshold (e.g., 5%).Hero tip: Consider the implications of the differing market structures. Polymarket requires a prediction about a range, while Kalshi requires a prediction about a floor.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on whether the Green Party's vote share falls within or below specific percentage ranges. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolves to the lowest range bracket if results are not known by December 31, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the Green Party is at or above a specified threshold (e.g., 5%). Offers a series of markets for different thresholds.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the Green Party's final certified vote share in Sweden's 2026 Riksdag election, as determined by Valmyndigheten. Each market corresponds to a specific minimum vote percentage threshold (ranging from 3% to 11%), with 'Yes' outcomes occurring when the certified percentage meets or exceeds that threshold. The calculation uses only valid votes cast for the Riksdag, excluding regional/municipal elections and any invalid, spoiled, blank, or rejected ballots. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding vote calculation methodology and resolution sources, with outcomes determined exclusively by the authoritative final certification rather than preliminary counts.