TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?

Volume:
$345,111

18-20%

 - Polymarket

18-20% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 3:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

18-20%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$90,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 13%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,049
N/A
N/A
$3,020
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 19%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,292
N/A
N/A
$629
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,512
N/A
N/A
$2,425
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 17%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,471
N/A
N/A
$1,705
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 18%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,330
N/A
N/A
$1,451
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 16%

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,350
N/A
N/A
$474
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$165,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<16%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,624
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16-18%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 21%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This group forecasts the vote share of the Moderate Party (M) in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. Markets ask whether the vote share will fall within specific percentage ranges or exceed a certain threshold. Resolution relies on official results from the Swedish Election Authority.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines ranges with a 'falls exactly between' rule, while Kalshi uses a series of inclusive range checks.Hero tip: A vote share precisely at a boundary will resolve differently on Polymarket vs. Kalshi. Hedge if you have strong directional conviction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Offers markets based on ranges (e.g., 16%-18%) and a 'less than' condition. Resolves to the higher range if a value falls exactly on a boundary. Source: Swedish Election Authority.
  • Kalshi: Presents a series of binary markets, each asking if the vote share falls within a specific range (inclusive of endpoints). Source: Certified election results.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Kalshi

Multiple thresholds determine resolution: markets resolve to Yes if the Moderate Party's certified vote share meets or exceeds specified minimums (13%, 15%, 16%, 17%, 18%, 19%, or 21%). All markets use identical calculation methodology—dividing the party's valid votes by total valid ballots cast in the Riksdag election and multiplying by 100. Only final certified results from Valmyndigheten count, excluding preliminary counts, regional/municipal votes, and invalid/spoiled ballots. Higher-threshold markets are stricter, requiring progressively larger vote shares.