Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?
Start: 2026-08-13T09:39:28.000Z
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Sweden KD vote share market dashboard shows the current odds and price history for the likelihood that the KD party will secure more or less than 6% of the vote in the upcoming parliamentary election. It also displays 24-hour volume of $1,450 to indicate trader interest and market activity levels on this single venue.

Currently, this market reflects a strong expectation of exceeding 6%, contrasting with some polling averages that place the party closer to that threshold. Prediction markets often incorporate late-breaking news and betting patterns, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional surveys alone. The gap may widen or shrink as election day approaches, depending on emerging developments and shifting voter sentiment.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote share percentage for the KD party will decide whether the market settles on the over or under 6% outcome, based on authoritative reporting and confirmed data.

Key events such as debate performance, economic announcements, or major party endorsements could shift this market. Media coverage of voter trends, opinion poll releases, and any scandal or policy controversy involving the KD party may also cause rapid price changes. Traders will react to any information that alters expectations for the final vote share percentage.

Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?

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