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Sweden Parliamentary Election: C Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Sweden Parliamentary Election: C Vote Share?

Volume:
$99,082

7-9%

 - Polymarket

7-9% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 3:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

7-9%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.7¢
N/A
$15,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,758
N/A
N/A
$3,668
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,041
N/A
N/A
$6,018
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,152
N/A
N/A
$756
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 7%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,517
N/A
N/A
$1,052
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 6%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
$285
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 12%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,732
N/A
N/A
$8,366
Settled
No
polymarket

5-7%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,617
N/A
N/A
$2,999
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 9%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,142
N/A
N/A
$670
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 8%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the Centre Party (C) will receive in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. The markets resolve based on the official percentage of valid votes attributed to the party by the Swedish Election Authority.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket offers range-based markets, while Kalshi offers threshold-based markets, creating a divergence in how traders express their beliefs.Hero tip: Consider the different market structures when trading. Polymarket requires predicting a range, while Kalshi focuses on exceeding a threshold. This impacts the probability distribution implied by market prices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets ask whether the Centre Party's vote share will fall within specific ranges. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets ask whether the Centre Party's vote share will be greater than or equal to a specific threshold. "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Centre Party in the 2026 Swedish general election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Centre Party (C) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the Centre Party's final, certified vote share in Sweden's 2026 Riksdag election, as determined by Valmyndigheten. Each market corresponds to a specific minimum percentage threshold (ranging from 3% to 12%), and resolves to 'Yes' if the party's vote share meets or exceeds that threshold. The calculation uses only valid votes cast for the Riksdag, excluding invalid, spoiled, blank, or rejected ballots, and disregards votes from concurrent regional or municipal elections. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding vote calculation methodology and resolution sources, ensuring consistency across thresholds.