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404,028
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Closed: Sep 17, 5:04 AM EST
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
On Polymarket, the current probability reflects trader sentiment about the Sweden 4th place parliamentary race. While polling averages offer another perspective, this market’s price captures real-time betting activity and can diverge based on perceived risks, recent events, or shifts in voter sentiment not yet reflected in traditional surveys. Traders may react more quickly to emerging news or campaign developments, causing this market to move ahead of or differently from public polling trends.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final seat tallies from Sweden's official parliamentary count will decide the winner, and the market will close as soon as those numbers are beyond dispute. Timing depends on how swiftly official results are announced post-election night.
Several factors could shift this market before Sep 13, 2026. Key Swedish opinion polls, especially those focusing on smaller parties’ support levels, may cause rapid adjustments. Major campaign events—such as debates, scandals, or policy announcements—could also reshape trader expectations. Economic data releases or shifts in voter sentiment tied to current events may influence perceptions of each party’s viability for fourth place, driving volatility in this market as the election approaches.