TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.6b

24H VOL:

$116,798,672

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,184,512,666

334,929

Markets across

33,394

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,144

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

polymarket

limitless

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Aug 25, 2026, 7:04 AM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST

Total volume:

$9,705,313

Volume 24h:

$234,540

27%

Liquidity:

$459,377

64%

Open interest:

$1,874,128N/A

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

36%

Limitless

N/A

consensus

36%

+1%

spread

36-36%

(0pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 19

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Vol.

$1.1m

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 36¢ buys you 278 shares | Odds: 36% Total Payout: $278 | Net Profit: $178 Multiplier: 2.78x | ROI: 178% High Projected APY: 1,784% 126 days to resolution

limitless

Trade on Limitless

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 0.29% 126 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

36%

3%

Yes 36¢

No 65¢

1¢

$459,377

$9,705,313

2%

13%

N/A

4mo 6d

active

limitless

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

N/A

N/A

99.8¢

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

4mo 6d

active

Market Consensus

36%

Yes 36¢

No 65¢

Avg: 50.4¢

Max: 99.8¢

MUI X License key version mismatch

Total markets: 2

Description

This market group assesses whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by December 31, 2026. Normal traffic is defined as a 7-day moving average of transit calls (Arrivals of Ships) equal to or above 60, as reported by IMF Portwatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Limitless use identical resolution criteria based on IMF Portwatch data for the Strait of Hormuz.Primary resolution logic: IMF Portwatch transit calls data published at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730

Core resolution logic:

Market resolves to 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls >=60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026
Market resolves to 'No' if no such value is published by the time data covers December 31, 2026
Revisions to data points made before December 31, 2026 final data publication are considered, but cannot disqualify previously qualifying values
If data for December 31, 2026 is not published within 14 days after the period ends, resolution uses available data up to that correction deadline
Obvious data integrity issues (clerical errors) allow market to remain open for 3 calendar days after erroneous data release

Edge cases & clarifications:

Data Revision After Deadline: Revisions to data points published after December 31, 2026 final data release are ignored for resolution purposes
Data Integrity Issue: If IMF Portwatch publishes clearly erroneous data (e.g., negative values, implausible spikes), market stays open until end of third calendar day after erroneous data release

Timing: Resolves as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes qualifying 7-day average, or after data publication for December 31, 2026 (plus 14-day buffer if needed)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz Traffic market aggregates betting data from multiple platforms, showing real-time probabilities and volume for whether commercial shipping will return to typical levels before Dec 31, 2026. It displays consensus views across venues, highlighting how trader sentiment shifts with geopolitical developments. This centralized view helps users monitor market momentum and compare expectations against emerging headlines about naval safety and regional diplomacy influencing the waterway’s status.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Analysts will assess whether traffic flow through the strait has returned to pre-disruption levels by the deadline, using data from maritime authorities and international news sources. The binary result — normal or not — is then locked in based on that objective checkpoint, closing the market for final settlement across all platforms.

Key signals include naval incidents, sanctions announcements, or diplomatic agreements involving regional powers. Any escalation — such as a reported attack, blockade threat, or major oil tanker delay — could rapidly shift this market toward lower probabilities for normal traffic. Conversely, multilateral de-escalation efforts, security pact renewals, or clear statements of safe passage from involved governments may push odds upward as traders price in a faster return to stability.