TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 5, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks Starbucks' monthly credit card spend for August 2026, using data from Carbon Arc. The outcome depends on whether the reported index value exceeds specific thresholds, with higher thresholds representing greater year-over-year growth in customer spending.
All markets in this event are determined by the Carbon Arc Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. Starbucks store visits, with values above 100 indicating growth compared to the same month in the prior year. Each market has a unique threshold (e.g., 100, 100.5, 101, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the first reported value for August 2026 exceeds that threshold. No corrections or revisions after the initial report will affect the outcome. The index is calculated using mobile location data from over 200 million devices, normalized for seasonality, weather, and holidays, and updated daily.
Currently, this market reflects trader expectations through its odds, which can be contrasted with analyst forecasts from major financial institutions. Analysts often publish their projections for Starbucks' spending based on sales trends, consumer behavior, and economic indicators. Comparing these forecasts to the market's implied probability helps identify potential discrepancies or consensus.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released data from Starbucks or trusted financial sources, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves, including major economic announcements, shifts in consumer spending patterns, and quarterly reports from Starbucks. Unexpected events such as changes in payment processing or market conditions may also cause price movements. Traders will watch these developments closely as they could significantly alter expectations for August's spend.