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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 14?
polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$34,378

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 14?

 - Polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 14? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 4:16 PM EST

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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 14?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the SPY direction market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $33,863, and the total volume for this market is $34,378. You can see how the implied probability of the SPY going up or down has changed over time with the price chart. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the direction of the SPY around Sep 14, 2026. This allows for quick assessment of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation for the SPY's performance, though this can shift rapidly based on incoming information. Comparing this market to traditional analyst forecasts reveals how collective prediction differs from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of data and perspectives than individual analyst reports. It’s interesting to note how quickly this market reacts to news events, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of probability than static analyst ratings. The question is whether this market's wisdom of the crowd will align with broader financial predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the SPY will be up or down on Sep 14, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people buy shares predicting an upswing, the price of those shares will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the SPY’s future direction.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the closing price of the SPY ETF on that date is higher or lower than its opening price. Traders will then be paid out based on their holdings in the 'Up' or 'Down' shares. It’s important to monitor news and economic data leading up to the resolution date, as these factors can significantly influence the final outcome of this market. The final price will be sourced from standard financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 14, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment numbers, are likely to have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy could also trigger significant price movements. Company earnings reports from large SPY constituents could also influence trader sentiment. Any news that alters the overall risk appetite of investors, or specifically impacts the outlook for the US economy, has the potential to shift the odds in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for anyone participating in the SPY direction market.