TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9?
polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9?

Volume:
$145,179

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9?

 - Polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 9, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction, which often diverges from traditional analyst consensus. While Wall Street equity strategists publish price targets and directional calls based on fundamental analysis, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants with financial skin in the game. Analyst forecasts tend to focus on longer-term trends, whereas prediction markets price in near-term catalysts and sentiment shifts. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus aligns with crowd expectations for SPY's June 9 close, highlighting potential gaps between institutional and decentralized market views.

On Polymarket, SPY Up or Down on June 9 is priced as a binary contract where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the probability implied by the order book; as traders accumulate positions, prices shift to balance supply and demand. Shares in the winning outcome pay out at full value, while losing shares expire worthless. Polymarket's automated market maker model ensures continuous liquidity, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at transparent, real-time prices throughout the event window until Jun 9, 2026.

The market resolves at Jun 9, 2026, after SPY's trading session closes on June 9. Resolution is determined by SPY's official closing price on that date. If SPY closes higher than its opening price on June 9, the Up outcome wins; if it closes lower, the Down outcome wins. The event captures intraday directional movement, making it sensitive to market-moving news, economic releases, or geopolitical events occurring that day. Traders monitor pre-market futures, overnight developments, and morning volatility to refine their positions before the final close.

SPY's direction on June 9 depends on macroeconomic releases, central bank communications, earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments. Key catalysts include inflation data, employment reports, Fed speaker commentary, and corporate guidance. Overnight international market moves, commodity price swings, or credit market stress can set the tone before the US open. Sector rotation, options expiry dynamics, and technical support or resistance levels also influence intraday momentum. Traders monitor futures contracts, VIX levels, and bond yields as leading indicators. Any unexpected policy shift or market shock in the days leading up to June 9 could shift prediction market odds significantly.