TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 5, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 5, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 5, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street analysts publish price targets and directional calls based on fundamental research, prediction markets aggregate distributed bets from thousands of participants with financial skin in the game. Analysts may focus on longer-term trends, whereas market odds capture near-term sentiment and event risk closer to the June 5 resolution date. Comparing the two perspectives can reveal where consensus differs and highlight potential blind spots in either view.
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by SPY's closing price on that date: if it closes higher than the previous close, the Up outcome wins; if it closes lower, the Down outcome wins. The exact settlement price and methodology are specified in the market's terms at creation. Once the market closes and the official data is confirmed, winning shares are credited at full value and losing shares expire. Traders should review the full resolution criteria on Polymarket before entering positions.
Several catalysts could shift SPY's direction by June 5. Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data, employment reports, and corporate earnings surprises often drive broad market moves. Geopolitical tensions, interest rate expectations, and sector-specific news can also influence the S&P 500. Closer to the date, economic data releases and Fed speaker commentary typically increase volatility. Market technicals, such as support and resistance levels, may guide intraday trading. Traders monitoring these signals can adjust positions as new information emerges, potentially shifting the prediction market odds in real time.