TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 2, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While Wall Street equity strategists and technical analysts publish price targets and directional calls based on fundamental and technical analysis, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. Traders on Polymarket are betting capital directly on SPY's June 2 close, creating a dynamic probability that updates faster than consensus analyst revisions. Comparing the market's implied odds to published analyst sentiment can reveal whether professional forecasters are more or less bullish than the crowd of prediction market participants.
The SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2 market resolves on Jun 2, 2026. Resolution hinges on SPY's closing price on that date: if the closing price is higher than the previous day's close, the Up outcome wins; if lower, the Down outcome wins. This straightforward binary structure eliminates ambiguity and allows traders to settle positions immediately after the market close. The resolution is based on official exchange data, ensuring accuracy and preventing disputes. Once resolved, winning shares are credited at full value and losing shares expire worthless.
SPY's direction on June 2 could be influenced by major economic releases, Federal Reserve communications, corporate earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments. Key catalysts include inflation data, employment reports, and Fed meeting minutes that shift interest-rate expectations. Earnings announcements from large-cap constituents of the S&P 500 can drive sector rotation and overall market sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical tensions or trade policy announcements may trigger risk-off selling. Technical levels and options expiration dynamics also matter; if June 2 coincides with monthly or quarterly expiration, gamma hedging activity could amplify price moves. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust their positions and update market odds.