TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16?
polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16?

Volume:
$102,007

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16?

 - Polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$102,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on June 16, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the SPY daily price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the SPY exchange-traded fund will close higher or lower on June 16. The interface displays current bid-ask spreads, historical price movements, and cumulative volume to help traders monitor sentiment shifts. This market reflects live consensus from participants wagering on intraday equity index direction, updated continuously as new trades execute. The dashboard provides transparency into how the crowd is pricing near-term SPY price action relative to market open.

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different timescales and methodologies. Analysts typically issue longer-term price targets and earnings outlooks, while this market distills real-time trader conviction into binary odds for a single day's close. Prediction markets often reflect faster incorporation of breaking news and intraday volatility than published analyst consensus. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd expects near-term momentum to align with or diverge from longer-term fundamental views. Both signals together offer a richer picture of market expectations.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome—SPY up or down—and the market price reflects the collective willingness to bet on each side. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares are priced between 0 and 1 cent, with the sum of both outcomes equaling 1 cent; higher prices indicate stronger crowd conviction. Real-time order books and automated market makers ensure continuous liquidity. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust positions, moving prices dynamically until resolution.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the trading day concludes and SPY's closing price is verified. The outcome is determined by whether SPY closes above or below its opening price on that date, confirmed against credible public financial data sources. Resolution is binary: either the up outcome or the down outcome wins, and all shares in the winning side are redeemed at full value while losing shares expire worthless. Traders must hold positions until the market officially closes.

Major economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, corporate earnings surprises, and geopolitical developments can all shift this market sharply in the hours leading up to June 16's close. Intraday volatility, sector rotation, and shifts in Treasury yields often drive SPY momentum. Technical levels and options expiration activity may also influence end-of-day price action. Breaking news on inflation, employment, or market-moving corporate events could trigger rapid repricing. Traders monitor these catalysts closely to adjust positions before the final bell.