TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
750
- Opinion
750 - Opinion
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 9, 2026
Latest in Companies
Closed: Sep 8, 11:05 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for SPY (SPY) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or SPY (SPY) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY (SPY), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the SPY (SPY) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY (SPY) trades governs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official "Close" price for SPY (SPY) on the trading day specified in the title is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. A "Close" exactly equal to the specified price resolves to "No". If the market is not open on the specified day (exchange holiday or unscheduled closure), or SPY (SPY) does not trade at all during that day's regular session, this market resolves 50-50 — each side is paid at half value; this is not a refund. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting SPY (SPY), this market resolves on split-adjusted prices, and the price specified in the title is adjusted proportionally. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the SPY (SPY) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/ under "Historical Prices". If that data is unavailable due to an outage or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which SPY (SPY) trades governs.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the SPY closes above its price on September 8, 2026. The final price will be sourced from standard financial data providers and will be used to determine which outcome—above or below—is considered the correct result. Traders holding contracts predicting the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 8, 2026. Major economic reports, such as inflation data or employment figures, could shift investor sentiment and impact the SPY’s trajectory. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy are also potential catalysts. Company-specific news related to major SPY constituents could also play a role. Furthermore, broad market corrections or rallies driven by overall risk appetite could cause substantial price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders seeking to capitalize on changing probabilities.
