TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.8b
24H VOL:
$198,054,468
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,096,072
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,851,647,753
460,044
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,795
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
At least 25,500,000
- Kalshi
At least 25,500,000 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 6, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will at least 25,500,000 ballots be cast in Spain’s November 29, 2026 general election?
$
Description
The Spanish general election will test public engagement through voter participation levels. Outcomes hinge on whether a specific threshold of valid and null ballots is reached, reflecting broader electoral dynamics and civic involvement in shaping national governance.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the officially certified results of the November 29, 2026 Spanish general election for the Congress of Deputies. The relevant count includes valid votes (including blank votes) and null votes, excluding registered voters, abstentions, and Senate ballots. If the national results are not published by the Expiration Date, provincial electoral boards' totals—including votes from Spaniards resident abroad—are used. Provisional counts excluding overseas votes apply only if provincial scrutiny remains incomplete by the deadline. All outcomes depend solely on certified results, disregarding preliminary counts, exit polls, or projections. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the original date, contracts remain valid; any postponement beyond one year or cancellation before voting results in all contracts resolving to No.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for Spanish election turnout, potentially differing from those presented by political analysts and polling data. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows traders to express a probability distribution over all possible turnout levels. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or simply varying interpretations of the available data. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the collective wisdom of many participants, which may diverge from individual expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different turnout ranges, and the price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price moves based on supply and demand – if more traders believe turnout will be high, they will bid up the price of contracts representing higher turnout ranges, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the likely turnout.
This market resolves around Dec 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official voter turnout percentage for the Spanish general election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official figures released by the relevant electoral authorities in Spain. The market will settle to 100 if the actual turnout falls within a contract's range, and to 0 if it does not. The specific contract corresponding to the actual turnout will determine the payout for winning traders in this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Major political events, such as debates or significant policy announcements, could alter voter sentiment and impact predicted turnout. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a substantial shift in voter intentions, would likely be reflected in the market price. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events could also play a role, as these can affect voter engagement and participation. Finally, any news related to potential disruptions to the voting process itself could significantly move this market.
