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Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026
kalshi

Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026

Volume:
$11,109

Above 0.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 2:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,573
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,540
N/A
N/A
$1,539
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$864
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$863
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$636
N/A
N/A
$636
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,795
N/A
N/A
$1,789
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,384
N/A
N/A
$728
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$923
N/A
N/A
$917
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$869
N/A
N/A
$863
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$535
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.7%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.9%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether Spain's quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 will exceed -0.1% based on the flash estimate. On Kalshi, the probability that Spain's Q1 2026 QoQ GDP growth will be above -0.1% stands at 99.0%. The market resolves according to Spain's official flash GDP estimate for Q1 2026. Watch for the release of Spain's preliminary GDP figures on the resolution date of July 2, 2026, which will determine the final settlement.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by Spain's official quarter-over-quarter GDP growth rate for Q1 2026. Each outcome specifies a threshold ranging from -0.1% to 1.3% in 0.1% increments. The market resolves to Yes for any outcome whose threshold is below the actual reported growth rate. If the actual growth rate is -0.1% or lower, all outcomes resolve to No. Positive thresholds indicate expansion while negative thresholds allow for contraction scenarios.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 event on Kalshi. You can monitor the current probability of the top outcome, which asks whether Spain's quarter-on-quarter GDP growth will exceed 1.3%. The dashboard displays live price movements, historical odds trends, and trading volume metrics. With total group volume at $11,109, this market reflects active trader participation. The 24-hour volume snapshot helps you gauge recent momentum and liquidity conditions on the platform.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi offer a real-time, crowd-sourced alternative to traditional analyst consensus forecasts for Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth. While professional economists typically publish quarterly outlooks through research institutions and central bank surveys, prediction markets aggregate the collective expectations of traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately. The market-implied probability reflects traders' beliefs about whether growth will exceed 1.3% QoQ. Comparing these odds to consensus economist estimates from sources like Bloomberg or ECB projections can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimism or caution than the analyst consensus.

The Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 market resolves on Jul 2, 2026. Resolution occurs after Spain's official Q1 2026 GDP growth data is published, typically by the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) or Eurostat. The outcome is determined by whether the quarter-on-quarter growth rate meets or exceeds the 1.3% threshold specified in the contract. Once the official figure is released and verified, the market settles automatically based on that data point, and traders' positions are credited or debited accordingly.

Several catalysts could shift market odds for Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth before resolution. Eurozone economic data—including inflation reports, employment figures, and manufacturing PMI—affects Spanish growth expectations. ECB monetary policy decisions and interest rate guidance influence consumer spending and business investment. Spanish-specific releases such as retail sales, industrial production, and confidence surveys provide direct signals. Global trade developments, energy prices, and geopolitical events also impact European growth. Preliminary GDP estimates or flash readings released ahead of final Q1 data will likely trigger sharp repricing. Revisions to prior quarters' growth figures can shift baseline expectations for Q1 performance.