TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether SpaceX or Tesla will have a higher valuation on June 30, 2026, comparing SpaceX's valuation on Nasdaq Private Market against Tesla's public market capitalization. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 92.5%. Resolution will use the final NPM Price for SpaceX and the official closing price for Tesla on June 30, 2026, with NPM data published by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026 serving as the authoritative source. Watch for any NPM data releases by the July 1 deadline, as delayed or missing data could extend resolution through July 4, 2026.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If SpaceX's valuation is equal to Tesla's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by comparing the official valuations of SpaceX and Tesla as of June 30, 2026. Resolution depends on verified valuation data from credible financial sources at that specific date. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing shares expire worthless. The exact resolution criteria and data sources are specified in the market's terms to ensure clarity and fairness for all participants.
Key catalysts include SpaceX's progress on Starship commercialization, Starlink profitability milestones, and any funding rounds that signal valuation changes. Tesla's earnings reports, EV market share trends, and autonomous driving developments significantly influence its valuation trajectory. Broader market conditions, interest rate changes, and tech sector sentiment affect both companies. Major geopolitical events, regulatory shifts in space or automotive industries, and competitive announcements from rivals can shift trader expectations. Acquisition rumors or strategic partnerships involving either company would also move market odds substantially.