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SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
kalshi

SpaceX Starship 14th launch?

Volume:
$300,384

Before Oct 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 28, 10:48 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$67,867
N/A
N/A
$36,645
1mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 29, 2026

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,314
N/A
N/A
$16,932
1mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Oct 16, 2026

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,197
N/A
N/A
$6,712
1mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 30, 2026

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,131
N/A
N/A
$2,951
1mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102,023
N/A
N/A
$41,614
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 18, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,906
N/A
N/A
$31,891
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 23, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,969
N/A
N/A
$11,822
1mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 21, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,976
N/A
N/A
$5,574
1mo 2d
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This market tracks whether SpaceX will conduct its fourteenth Starship flight test within specific timeframes. The outcome depends on whether the launch occurs after the market issuance and before the defined deadline, as confirmed by SpaceX. Each market covers a different end date for the launch window.

Kalshi

The event determines whether SpaceX will conduct its fourteenth Starship flight test within any of the specified timeframes ending on August 21, 2026; September 1, 2026; September 18, 2026; October 1, 2026; or October 16, 2026. All markets resolve to 'Yes' if the launch occurs after the market issuance and before the respective deadline, with the launch date defined as the calendar date of liftoff in the local timezone of the launch site, as officially confirmed by SpaceX. The secondary rules consistently apply across all markets, ensuring uniform interpretation of the launch date criteria. The event effectively tests the likelihood of SpaceX achieving the fourteenth test flight within any of the progressively later deadlines.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the SpaceX Starship launch market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $42,478. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of the 14th SpaceX Starship launch occurring, with charts illustrating recent trends and overall volume of $300,384. This single-venue view updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity on Kalshi alone.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution occurs when official SpaceX announcements, trusted space news outlets, or authoritative government tracking sources confirm whether the 14th launch attempt has taken place. No internal platform mechanisms determine this — the market settles based on publicly verifiable evidence.

Several key developments could shift odds in this market before Nov 1, 2026. Successful or failed engine tests, changes to the launch manifest from SpaceX, regulatory approvals or delays from agencies like the FAA, and public statements from company executives all carry weight. Additionally, competing launch events or technical setbacks that affect overall flight cadence may influence trader sentiment. Natural conditions at potential launch sites and any new contracts awarding or canceling flights also serve as catalysts. Continuous monitoring of official SpaceX channels and aerospace news outlets will help track these signals as they emerge.