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SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 13?
polymarket

SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:
$184

SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 13?

 - Polymarket

SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 13? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 4:00 PM EST

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SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 13?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on July 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on July 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on July 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on July 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the SpaceX stock price market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for this binary outcome event. Traders can monitor current market sentiment, view 24-hour volume of $162, and track how the probability has shifted over time. The dashboard aggregates all trading activity on the platform for this specific event, allowing participants to see at a glance whether the market is pricing in an up or down move by the resolution date. This transparency helps traders make informed decisions based on collective market intelligence.

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Analysts typically rely on fundamental research, earnings models, and sector trends, while prediction markets aggregate real-money bets from many participants with varying expertise and time horizons. This market's odds represent the aggregated belief of traders willing to stake capital, which can sometimes move ahead of or lag behind published analyst sentiment. Both signals are useful: markets excel at pricing in unexpected catalysts, while analysts provide detailed reasoning that markets may not fully capture.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares representing each outcome, and the platform's algorithm adjusts the price based on order flow and liquidity. The current odds reflect the cumulative positions of all participants; as new information emerges or sentiment shifts, the price updates instantly. This mechanism ensures continuous pricing and allows traders to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined rates throughout the event window.

This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether SpaceX's stock price closes above or below its opening level on that date. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout automatically once the outcome is finalized and verified. Until that moment, positions remain open and prices may continue to fluctuate as new developments or market conditions emerge.

Several catalysts could shift trader sentiment before resolution. Major company announcements—such as successful launches, contract wins, or regulatory updates—typically trigger sharp price moves. Broader market conditions, including tech sector momentum and investor risk appetite, also influence aerospace and defense stocks. Earnings surprises, changes in leadership or strategy, and geopolitical developments affecting space commerce can all impact the outcome. Traders monitor news flow, social media sentiment, and competing forecasts to adjust their positions, so any material development could reshape the odds significantly.