TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 4:19 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a roughly 44% chance that SpaceX (SPCX) will close at under $130 on the final day of trading this week. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on financial modeling and company reports. While analyst predictions can offer valuable insights, this market represents the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s future performance.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential closing prices for SpaceX stock. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure pushing prices higher and increased selling pressure pushing prices lower. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and sentiment surrounding SpaceX.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of SpaceX stock on the final day of trading of the week of September 21 will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the closing price range, based on the contracts they held. Traders should monitor news and financial data related to SpaceX leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential market-moving events.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major news announcements regarding SpaceX’s Starship program, successful or unsuccessful rocket launches, or significant contract wins or losses could all influence trader sentiment. Broader market trends, such as overall stock market performance or changes in investor risk appetite, could also play a role. Furthermore, any unexpected developments related to Elon Musk or SpaceX’s leadership could introduce volatility into this market and shift the probabilities of different outcomes.